October 30, 2017

CLASS 1A WEST POINT PROJECTIONS

ALLEGANY vs. Fort Hill
- WIN (10.34)
- LOSE (9.04)

BOONSBORO vs. Smithsburg
- WIN (7.04)
- LOSE (6.16)

CATOCTIN vs.Brunswick
- WIN (6.47)
- LOSE (5.57)

FORT HILL vs. Allegany
- WIN (9.50)
- LOSE (8.29)

FRANCIS SCOTT KEY vs. Winters Mill
- WIN (5.71)
- LOSE (4.61)

NORTHERN vs. Southern
- WIN (6.13)
- LOSE (4.88)

SOUTHERN vs. Northern
- WIN (7.00)
- LOSE (5.84)

DUNBAR vs. Patterson
- WIN (9.68)
- LOSE (8.91)

HAVRE DE GRACE vs. North Harford
- WIN (9.50)
- LOSE (8.50)

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This is definite:
The winner of Allegany vs. Fort Hill will be the #1 seed in 1A West
The loser of Allegany vs. Fort Hill will be the #2 seed in 1A West
This assures that Allegany and Fort Hill will not face each other in back-to-back weeks.

TODD HELMICK' PROJECTION FOR 1A WEST
1. Allegany vs. Fort Hill winner
2. Allegany vs. Fort Hill loser
3. Boonsboro
4. Southern

BASED ON THE ABOVE POINT PROJECTIONS

If Boonsboro beats Smithsburg they are locked in at the #3 seed in 1A West
If Southern beats Northern they are locked in the playoffs / If Southern loses to Northern they are eliminated from the playoffs

For Northern to get in the playoffs they have to beat Southern and hope that Catoctin loses to Brunswick / If Catoctin beats Brunswick then Northern is eliminated from the playoffs
For Catoctin to get in the playoffs they have to beat Brunswick and hope that Northern beats Southern or Smithsburg beats Boonsboro
Francis Scott Key is eliminated from the playoffs win or lose. They have no mathematical chance at getting in.
Mountain Ridge, Brunswick, Smithsburg, Hancock and Clear Spring are eliminated from the playoffs.

If Smithsburg beats Boonsboro - Southern with a victory over Northern would slide Southern into the #3 spot in 1A West
If Smithsburg beats Boonsboro - even with a 6-4 record, Boonsboro could still get in the playoffs if Catoctin loses to Brunswick

 

CLASS 1A SEEDINGS
If Allegany beats Fort Hill then Allegany is the overall #1 seed in all of Class 1A
If Fort Hill beats Allegany then Fort Hill is the overall #2 seed in all of Class 1A - however this is only based on a very tiny amount of points differentials. So this is no guarantee depending on how bonus points with defeated opponents work out. Either Fort Hill or Dunbar could wind up being the overall #1 seed depending on what other beaten opponents do.

Based on these projections the overall seeding for CLASS 1A if Alco beats Fort Hill:
1. Allegany (10.34)
2. Dunbar (9.68)
3. Havre De Grace (9.50)
4. South Region (Douglass PG / Lackey)

Based on these projections the overall seeding for CLASS 1A if Fort Hill beats Alco:
1. Dunbar (9.68)
2. Fort Hill (9.50) TIEBREAKER: 49 bonus points
3. Havre de Grace (9.50) TIEBREAKER: 41 bonus points
4. South Region (Douglass PG / Lackey)